PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Atalanta 3–1 Venezia · Serie A

3–1Full-time analysis

Venezia

LLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atalanta won 3–1.

Shots
2219
Shots on target
114
Expected goals
2.082.63
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atalanta beat Venezia 3–1. Recorded in this match (Atalanta – Venezia): shots 22–19, shots on target 11–4, expected goals 2.08–2.63, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Venezia's recent record differs from the season

weak

Venezia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.83 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible home split

weak

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16 shots/match13.5 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Venezia show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Venezia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAtalanta · Venezia14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaVeneziaBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match14.8 shots/match14.2 shots/match
Shots against19.2 shots/match15.5 shots/match15.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots19 shotsAtalanta 22 shots, Venezia 19 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots4 shotsAtalanta 11 shots, Venezia 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.08 xG2.63 xGAtalanta 2.08 xG, Venezia 2.63 xG
  • Possession36%64%Atalanta 36%, Venezia 64%
  • Corners8 corners7 cornersAtalanta 8 corners, Venezia 7 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls6 foulsAtalanta 14 fouls, Venezia 6 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsAtalanta 1 card, Venezia 2 cards
  • Passes332 passes580 passesAtalanta 332 passes, Venezia 580 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.1%90.7%Atalanta 83.1%, Venezia 90.7%
  • Shots inside box16 shots10 shotsAtalanta 16 shots, Venezia 10 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks6 blocksAtalanta 5 blocks, Venezia 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves7 savesAtalanta 3 saves, Venezia 7 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides5 offsidesAtalanta 0 offsides, Venezia 5 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 4′Franck KessiéGoal · Atalanta
  2. 6′Nikola KrstovićGoal · Atalanta
  3. 18′Matias MorenoYellow card · Venezia
  4. 30′Nikola KrstovićGoal · Atalanta
  5. 37′Antoine HainautGoal · Venezia
  6. 42′Juan JesusYellow card · Venezia
  7. Half-time
  8. 89′Eljif ElmasRed card · Atalanta
  9. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 8′Venezia · 1 player changeRichie Sagrado
  • 60′Atalanta · 1 player changeLazar Samardžić
  • 67′Atalanta · 2 player changesLorenzo Bernasconi · Sead Kolašinac
  • 76′Atalanta · 2 player changesNicola Zalewski · Gianluca Gaetano
  • 83′Venezia · 3 player changesJoel Schingtienne · Þórir Jóhann Helgason · Lion Lauberbach
  • 87′Venezia · 1 player changeAlbion Rrahmani

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Atalanta4-3-3
  1. Marco CarnesecchiG
  2. Raoul BellanovaD
  3. Thomas KristensenD
  4. Giorgio ScalviniD
  5. Lorenzo BernasconiD
  6. Lazar SamardžićM
  7. ÉdersonM
  8. Franck KessiéM
  9. Gianluca ScamaccaF
  10. Jonathan RoweF
  11. Charles De KetelaereF
Venezia3-5-2
  1. Filip StankovićG
  2. Matias MorenoD
  3. Joel SchingtienneD
  4. Thierry CorreiaD
  5. Juan JesusD
  6. Antoine HainautD
  7. Simon SohmM
  8. Toma BašićM
  9. Kike PérezM
  10. John YeboahF
  11. Akor AdamsF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Atalanta
1Draws
0Venezia
Atalanta — Venezia · Serie A0–0
Venezia — Atalanta · Serie A0–2
Venezia — Atalanta · Serie A1–3
Atalanta — Venezia · Serie A4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atalanta favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Venezia in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atalanta6 matchesVenezia6 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/62.67 goals/match
0.94 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.69 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 14.8 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/64.33 shots/match
46.2%Possession6/6● 58.3%
3.67 corners/matchCorners6/6● 4.33 corners/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls6/610.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtalantaVenezia
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAtalanta — Venezia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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