Fluminense 3–2 Palmeiras — Match Stats & Analysis

Serie A · 2026Sat, 15 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC

Fluminense

WLDDD

3–2Full-time analysis

Palmeiras

DWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fluminense won 3–2.

Shots: 1715
Shots on target: 66
Expected goals: 2.181.1
Possession: 60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fluminense beat Palmeiras 3–2. Recorded in this match (Fluminense – Palmeiras): shots 17–15, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 2.18–1.1, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fluminense's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fluminense's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.57 goals/match	1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.81 corners/matchCornersFluminense · Palmeiras5.81 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Fluminense	Palmeiras	Baseline
Corners	5.81 corners/match	5.81 corners/match	5.12 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.7% ●PossessionFluminense · Palmeiras49.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Fluminense	Palmeiras	Baseline
Possession	59.7%	49.5%	49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

Shots17 shots15 shotsFluminense 17 shots, Palmeiras 15 shots
Shots on target6 shots6 shotsFluminense 6 shots, Palmeiras 6 shots
Expected goals2.18 xG1.1 xGFluminense 2.18 xG, Palmeiras 1.1 xG
Possession60%40%Fluminense 60%, Palmeiras 40%
Corners5 corners5 cornersFluminense 5 corners, Palmeiras 5 corners
Fouls16 fouls17 foulsFluminense 16 fouls, Palmeiras 17 fouls
Yellow cards4 cards3 cardsFluminense 4 cards, Palmeiras 3 cards
Passes487 passes317 passesFluminense 487 passes, Palmeiras 317 passes
Pass accuracy88.1%82.3%Fluminense 88.1%, Palmeiras 82.3%
Shots inside box13 shots9 shotsFluminense 13 shots, Palmeiras 9 shots
Blocked shots3 blocks3 blocksFluminense 3 blocks, Palmeiras 3 blocks
Goalkeeper saves4 saves3 savesFluminense 4 saves, Palmeiras 3 saves
Offsides0 offsides1 offsideFluminense 0 offsides, Palmeiras 1 offside

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Fluminense: 17 shots, 6 on target, 2.78 xG. Palmeiras: 15 shots, 7 on target, 1.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fluminense 2.78 xG · Palmeiras 1.67 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Fluminense

1Draws

2Palmeiras

26 Feb 2026Palmeiras — Fluminense · Serie A2–1

23 Nov 2025Palmeiras — Fluminense · Serie A0–0

23 Jul 2025Fluminense — Palmeiras · Serie A1–2

8 Dec 2024Palmeiras — Fluminense · Serie A0–1

25 Jul 2024Fluminense — Palmeiras · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Palmeiras in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense21 matchesPalmeiras21 matches

1.57 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲ 1.67 goals/match

1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲ 0.81 goals/match

1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals17/170.88 xG/match

15.2 shots/match ▲Shots21/2113.7 shots/match

5.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/214.57 shots/match

59.7% ●Possession21/2149.5%

5.81 corners/matchCorners21/215.81 corners/match

3.4 cards/matchCards5/41.75 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFouls21/2114.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match ranking xG per match ranking Shots per match ranking

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Match at a glance

What the match recorded