PitchMath
Serie A · 2022

Coritiba 2–1 Fortaleza · Serie A

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Coritiba won 2–1.

Shots
1122
Shots on target
47
Expected goals
1.031.61
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

Coritiba beat Fortaleza 2–1. Recorded in this match (Coritiba – Fortaleza): shots 11–22, shots on target 4–7, expected goals 1.03–1.61, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.87 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.87 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortaleza have a visible away split

moderate

Fortaleza's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match14.7 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots22 shotsCoritiba 11 shots, Fortaleza 22 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots7 shotsCoritiba 4 shots, Fortaleza 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.03 xG1.61 xGCoritiba 1.03 xG, Fortaleza 1.61 xG
  • Possession37%63%Coritiba 37%, Fortaleza 63%
  • Corners2 corners6 cornersCoritiba 2 corners, Fortaleza 6 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls22 foulsCoritiba 11 fouls, Fortaleza 22 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Coritiba favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Coritiba15 matchesFortaleza15 matches
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/150.87 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 1.4 goals/match
1.45 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/151.19 xG/match
15 shots/matchShots15/1514.7 shots/match
5.13 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/154.67 shots/match
47.1%Possession15/15● 50.7%
5.93 corners/match ●Corners15/155.6 corners/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1515.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 4 Jul 2022, 01:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCoritibaFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2022
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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