PitchMath
Serie A · 2022

Fluminense 2–1 Ceará · Serie A

2–1Historical match

Ceará

DDDDD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fluminense won 2–1.

Shots
1817
Shots on target
66
Expected goals
1.551.86
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fluminense beat Ceará 2–1. Recorded in this match (Fluminense – Ceará): shots 18–17, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 1.55–1.86, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Ceará's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ceará's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fluminense have a visible home split

moderate

Fluminense's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots17 shotsFluminense 18 shots, Ceará 17 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots6 shotsFluminense 6 shots, Ceará 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.55 xG1.86 xGFluminense 1.55 xG, Ceará 1.86 xG
  • Possession59%41%Fluminense 59%, Ceará 41%
  • Corners9 corners10 cornersFluminense 9 corners, Ceará 10 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls17 foulsFluminense 16 fouls, Ceará 17 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Ceará in 3 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense16 matchesCeará16 matches
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161 goal/match
0.94 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/161.06 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals16/161.15 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots16/16▲ 14.3 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲ 4.88 shots/match
56.8% ●Possession16/1651.6%
6 corners/match ●Corners16/165.44 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls16/1614.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Jul 2022, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFluminenseCeará
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2022
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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