PitchMath
Serie A · 2022

Fortaleza 1–3 Botafogo · Serie A

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Botafogo won 1–3.

Shots
1517
Shots on target
49
Expected goals
1.981.62
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Botafogo beat Fortaleza 3–1. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza – Botafogo): shots 15–17, shots on target 4–9, expected goals 1.98–1.62, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.92 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortaleza have a visible home split

strong

Fortaleza's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.4 shots/match13.9 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots17 shotsFortaleza 15 shots, Botafogo 17 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots9 shotsFortaleza 4 shots, Botafogo 9 shots
  • Expected goals1.98 xG1.62 xGFortaleza 1.98 xG, Botafogo 1.62 xG
  • Possession57%43%Fortaleza 57%, Botafogo 43%
  • Corners5 corners9 cornersFortaleza 5 corners, Botafogo 9 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls14 foulsFortaleza 15 fouls, Botafogo 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortaleza
0Draws
1Botafogo
Botafogo — Fortaleza · Serie A3–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Botafogo in 2 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza25 matchesBotafogo25 matches
0.92 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1 goal/match
1.04 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.2 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals25/251.09 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots25/2513.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target25/254.6 shots/match
46.7%Possession25/25● 49.5%
5.48 corners/match ●Corners25/254.6 corners/match
14 fouls/matchFouls25/2514.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Sept 2022, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortalezaBotafogo
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2022
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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