PitchMath
Serie A · 2022

Athletico 1–1 Fortaleza · Serie A

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Athletico and Fortaleza drew 1–1.

Shots
219
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.210.54
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Athletico and Fortaleza drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Athletico – Fortaleza): shots 21–9, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.21–0.54, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.05 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortaleza have a visible away split

moderate

Fortaleza's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots9 shotsAthletico 21 shots, Fortaleza 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsAthletico 4 shots, Fortaleza 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.21 xG0.54 xGAthletico 1.21 xG, Fortaleza 0.54 xG
  • Possession63%37%Athletico 63%, Fortaleza 37%
  • Corners13 corners4 cornersAthletico 13 corners, Fortaleza 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsAthletico 11 fouls, Fortaleza 10 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Athletico
1Draws
0Fortaleza
Fortaleza — Athletico · Serie A0–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletico favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletico30 matchesFortaleza30 matches
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals scored30/301 goal/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲ 1.07 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals30/301.08 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 13.8 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target30/304.27 shots/match
43.9%Possession30/30● 45%
5.33 corners/match ●Corners30/305.3 corners/match
14 fouls/matchFouls30/3014.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 6 Oct 2022, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthleticoFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2022
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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