PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Flamengo 2–0 Fortaleza · Serie A

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Flamengo won 2–0.

Shots
1014
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.31.62
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Flamengo beat Fortaleza 2–0. Recorded in this match (Flamengo – Fortaleza): shots 10–14, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.3–1.62, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.15 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Flamengo have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.8% ●PossessionFlamengo · Fortaleza45.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFlamengoFortalezaBaseline
Possession58.8%45.6%48%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots14 shotsFlamengo 10 shots, Fortaleza 14 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsFlamengo 4 shots, Fortaleza 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.3 xG1.62 xGFlamengo 1.3 xG, Fortaleza 1.62 xG
  • Possession60%40%Flamengo 60%, Fortaleza 40%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersFlamengo 5 corners, Fortaleza 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls14 foulsFlamengo 13 fouls, Fortaleza 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Flamengo
0Draws
2Fortaleza
Fortaleza — Flamengo · Serie A3–2
Flamengo — Fortaleza · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Flamengo favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 7 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Flamengo13 matchesFortaleza13 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/131.15 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 0.85 goals/match
1.64 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/131.51 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots13/1314.5 shots/match
4.62 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 5.23 shots/match
58.8% ●Possession13/1345.6%
4.62 corners/matchCorners13/13● 5 corners/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Jul 2023, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFlamengoFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headFlamengo — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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