PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Botafogo 3–0 Bahia · Serie A

3–0Historical match

Bahia

DDWLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Botafogo won 3–0.

Shots
1019
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
2.291.16
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Botafogo beat Bahia 3–0. Recorded in this match (Botafogo – Bahia): shots 10–19, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 2.29–1.16, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bahia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.12 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Botafogo have a visible home split

moderate

Botafogo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match13.5 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots19 shotsBotafogo 10 shots, Bahia 19 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsBotafogo 5 shots, Bahia 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.29 xG1.16 xGBotafogo 2.29 xG, Bahia 1.16 xG
  • Possession44%56%Botafogo 44%, Bahia 56%
  • Corners4 corners7 cornersBotafogo 4 corners, Bahia 7 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls10 foulsBotafogo 14 fouls, Bahia 10 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Botafogo
0Draws
0Bahia
Bahia — Botafogo · Serie A1–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Bahia in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo21 matchesBahia21 matches
1.81 goals/match ▲Goals scored21/211.05 goals/match
0.52 goals/match ▲Goals allowed21/211.33 goals/match
1.46 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/211.19 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots21/2113.9 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/214.38 shots/match
45.3%Possession21/21● 51.9%
4.43 corners/matchCorners21/21● 6.24 corners/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls21/2115 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 27 Aug 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogoBahia
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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