PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Bahia 4–1 Atlético Mineiro · Serie A

Bahia

LDWLL
4–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bahia won 4–1.

Shots
157
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
1.441.06
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bahia beat Atlético Mineiro 4–1. Recorded in this match (Bahia – Atlético Mineiro): shots 15–7, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 1.44–1.06, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bahia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.32 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bahia, Atlético Mineiro.

3.12 days ▲Rest daysBahia · Atlético Mineiro4.02 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBahiaAtlético MineiroBaseline
Rest days3.12 days4.02 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots7 shotsBahia 15 shots, Atlético Mineiro 7 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsBahia 6 shots, Atlético Mineiro 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.44 xG1.06 xGBahia 1.44 xG, Atlético Mineiro 1.06 xG
  • Possession37%63%Bahia 37%, Atlético Mineiro 63%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersBahia 3 corners, Atlético Mineiro 5 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls10 foulsBahia 16 fouls, Atlético Mineiro 10 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Bahia
0Draws
1Atlético Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro — Bahia · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bahia favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Atlético Mineiro in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bahia38 matchesAtlético Mineiro38 matches
1.32 goals/matchGoals scored38/381.37 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed38/38▲ 0.84 goals/match
1.36 xG/match ▲Expected goals38/381.25 xG/match
14.2 shots/match ▲Shots38/3812.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target38/384.55 shots/match
49.8%Possession38/38● 52.8%
5.5 corners/match ●Corners38/384.95 corners/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls38/3815.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 7 Dec 2023, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBahiaAtlético Mineiro
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required