PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Fortaleza 1–0 Grêmio · Serie A

1–0Historical match

Grêmio

WLLLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 1–0.

Shots
138
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.711.01
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza beat Grêmio 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza – Grêmio): shots 13–8, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.71–1.01, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Grêmio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Grêmio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.75 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fortaleza, Grêmio.

3.06 days ▲Rest daysFortaleza · Grêmio3.06 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFortalezaGrêmioBaseline
Rest days3.06 days3.06 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots8 shotsFortaleza 13 shots, Grêmio 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsFortaleza 4 shots, Grêmio 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.71 xG1.01 xGFortaleza 1.71 xG, Grêmio 1.01 xG
  • Possession52%48%Fortaleza 52%, Grêmio 48%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersFortaleza 8 corners, Grêmio 3 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls7 foulsFortaleza 15 fouls, Grêmio 7 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortaleza
2Draws
0Grêmio
Fortaleza — Grêmio · Serie A1–1
Grêmio — Fortaleza · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Grêmio in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza9 matchesGrêmio8 matches
0.78 goals/matchGoals scored9/80.75 goals/match
1.11 goals/match ▲Goals allowed9/81.25 goals/match
0.97 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/80.87 xG/match
12.3 shots/match ▲Shots9/810 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target9/83.38 shots/match
42.7%Possession9/8● 49.1%
6 corners/match ●Corners9/84.88 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls9/810.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 20 Jun 2024, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortalezaGrêmio
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headFortaleza — Grêmio
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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