PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Palmeiras 2–1 Atlético Mineiro · Serie A

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Palmeiras won 2–1.

Shots
156
Shots on target
83
Expected goals
2.60.28
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Palmeiras beat Atlético Mineiro 2–1. Recorded in this match (Palmeiras – Atlético Mineiro): shots 15–6, shots on target 8–3, expected goals 2.6–0.28, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Palmeiras's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Palmeiras's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.64 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match1.64 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots6 shotsPalmeiras 15 shots, Atlético Mineiro 6 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots3 shotsPalmeiras 8 shots, Atlético Mineiro 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.6 xG0.28 xGPalmeiras 2.6 xG, Atlético Mineiro 0.28 xG
  • Possession43%57%Palmeiras 43%, Atlético Mineiro 57%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersPalmeiras 7 corners, Atlético Mineiro 3 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls10 foulsPalmeiras 15 fouls, Atlético Mineiro 10 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Palmeiras
2Draws
1Atlético Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro — Palmeiras · Serie A0–4
Palmeiras — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A0–2
Atlético Mineiro — Palmeiras · Serie A1–1
Atlético Mineiro — Palmeiras · Serie A0–1
Palmeiras — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Palmeiras favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Atlético Mineiro in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Palmeiras28 matchesAtlético Mineiro26 matches
1.64 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/261.38 goals/match
0.71 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/261.46 goals/match
1.79 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/261.26 xG/match
17.8 shots/match ▲Shots28/2614.3 shots/match
5.82 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/264.69 shots/match
53.6%Possession28/26● 59.5%
6.82 corners/match ●Corners28/265.04 corners/match
14 fouls/matchFouls28/2613.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Sept 2024, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPalmeirasAtlético Mineiro
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headPalmeiras — Atlético Mineiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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