PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Fluminense 2–2 Fortaleza · Serie A

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fluminense and Fortaleza drew 2–2.

Shots
1011
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
0.951.18
Possession
74%26%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fluminense and Fortaleza drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Fluminense – Fortaleza): shots 10–11, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 0.95–1.18, possession 74%–26%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.2% ●PossessionFluminense · Fortaleza42%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFluminenseFortalezaBaseline
Possession55.2%42%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots11 shotsFluminense 10 shots, Fortaleza 11 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsFluminense 5 shots, Fortaleza 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.95 xG1.18 xGFluminense 0.95 xG, Fortaleza 1.18 xG
  • Possession74%26%Fluminense 74%, Fortaleza 26%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersFluminense 8 corners, Fortaleza 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls11 foulsFluminense 9 fouls, Fortaleza 11 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Fluminense
0Draws
2Fortaleza
Fortaleza — Fluminense · Serie A1–0
Fluminense — Fortaleza · Serie A1–0
Fortaleza — Fluminense · Serie A4–2
Fluminense — Fortaleza · Serie A2–1
Fortaleza — Fluminense · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense34 matchesFortaleza34 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.12 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲ 1 goal/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲ 1.19 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots34/34▲ 12.2 shots/match
4.12 shots/matchShots on target34/343.97 shots/match
55.2% ●Possession34/3442%
4.35 corners/matchCorners34/34● 4.59 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls34/3413.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Nov 2024, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFluminenseFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headFluminense — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required