PitchMath
Liga Profesional de Fútbol · 2026

Estudiantes de La Plata 0–1 Vélez Sarsfield · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vélez Sarsfield won 0–1.

Shots
138
Shots on target
21
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vélez Sarsfield beat Estudiantes de La Plata 1–0. Recorded in this match (Estudiantes de La Plata – Vélez Sarsfield): shots 13–8, shots on target 2–1, possession 56%–44%, corners 9–4. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vélez Sarsfield's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vélez Sarsfield's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.2 goals/match0.94 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Estudiantes de La Plata show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Estudiantes de La Plata's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.4 shots/match ▲ShotsEstudiantes de La Plata · Vélez Sarsfield10.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricEstudiantes de La PlataVélez SarsfieldBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match10.1 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots8 shotsEstudiantes de La Plata 13 shots, Vélez Sarsfield 8 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots1 shotEstudiantes de La Plata 2 shots, Vélez Sarsfield 1 shot
  • Possession56%44%Estudiantes de La Plata 56%, Vélez Sarsfield 44%
  • Corners9 corners4 cornersEstudiantes de La Plata 9 corners, Vélez Sarsfield 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls16 foulsEstudiantes de La Plata 13 fouls, Vélez Sarsfield 16 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Estudiantes de La Plata favored in 7 of 9 directional metrics · Vélez Sarsfield in 2

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Estudiantes de La Plata8 matchesVélez Sarsfield10 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/10▲ 1.2 goals/match
0.38 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/100.5 goals/match
13.4 shots/match ▲Shots8/1010.1 shots/match
4.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/103.1 shots/match
52.9% ●Possession8/1052%
4.5 corners/match ●Corners8/104 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls8/1011.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 3 Mar 2026, 02:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsEstudiantes de La PlataVélez Sarsfield
CompetitionLiga Profesional de Fútbol
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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