PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2026

Marítimo 1–0 Casa Pia · Primeira Liga

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Marítimo won 1–0.

Shots
169
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.280.64
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Marítimo beat Casa Pia 1–0. Recorded in this match (Marítimo – Casa Pia): shots 16–9, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.28–0.64, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots9 shotsMarítimo 16 shots, Casa Pia 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsMarítimo 4 shots, Casa Pia 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.28 xG0.64 xGMarítimo 1.28 xG, Casa Pia 0.64 xG
  • Possession39%61%Marítimo 39%, Casa Pia 61%
  • Corners2 corners6 cornersMarítimo 2 corners, Casa Pia 6 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls13 foulsMarítimo 17 fouls, Casa Pia 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsMarítimo 2 cards, Casa Pia 2 cards
  • Passes307 passes470 passesMarítimo 307 passes, Casa Pia 470 passes
  • Pass accuracy77.9%88.5%Marítimo 77.9%, Casa Pia 88.5%
  • Shots inside box12 shots6 shotsMarítimo 12 shots, Casa Pia 6 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocksMarítimo 4 blocks, Casa Pia 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves3 savesMarítimo 4 saves, Casa Pia 3 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideMarítimo 0 offsides, Casa Pia 1 offside

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Adrián Butzke · Marítimo · 61′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMartín Tejón · Marítimo · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSebastián Pérez · Casa Pia · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVladan Danilović · Marítimo · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSimo Bouzaidi · Marítimo · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavid Sousa · Casa Pia · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Andrade · Marítimo · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Butzke · Marítimo · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartín Tejón · Marítimo · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Henrique · Marítimo · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHenrique Araújo · Casa Pia · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMartín Tejón · Marítimo · 50′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRochinha · Casa Pia · 51′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSimo Bouzaidi · Marítimo · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRochinha · Casa Pia · 8′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLawrence Ofori · Casa Pia · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDavid Sousa · Casa Pia · 33′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRochinha · Casa Pia · 43′ · 0.07 xG · on targetVladan Danilović · Marítimo · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRomain Correia · Marítimo · 76′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMartín Tejón · Marítimo · 47′ · 0.12 xG · on targetRaphael Guzzo · Marítimo · 8′ · 0.15 xG · on targetMartín Tejón · Marítimo · 53′ · 0.15 xG · on targetHenrique Araújo · Casa Pia · 25′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedRaphael Guzzo · Marítimo · 61′ · 0.34 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Marítimo: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.22 xG. Casa Pia: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Raphael Guzzo · Marítimo · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marítimo 1.22 xG · Casa Pia 0.65 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Marítimo
0Draws
2Casa Pia
Casa Pia — Marítimo · Primeira Liga2–0
Marítimo — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Limited historical context

PitchMath holds only part of the history for this match.

Current-season evidence is below the threshold and the previous-season record is incomplete, so only what is actually stored is shown.

1 / 2 matches toward the first current-season grade

Current season so far

Completed matches in the season being played. Kept separate from the historical block below.

  • Marítimo1 matches
  • Casa Pia1 matches

Previous-season context

Recorded season totals from the source competition. Not current form.

Marítimo

No trustworthy previous-season profile is stored for this club.

Casa Pia

Competition
Primeira Liga
Season
2025/26
Sample
38 matches
Profile grade
A
Data cutoff
28 May 2026
  • Goals scored1 goal/match
  • Goals allowed1.58 goals/match
  • Expected goals0.93 xG/match
  • Expected goals allowed1.62 xG/match
  • Shots8.89 shots/match
  • Shots allowed13.8 shots/match
  • Shots on target3.08 shots/match
  • Shots on target allowed4.34 shots/match
  • Possession41.3%
  • Corners3.95 corners/match
  • Corners allowed5.87 corners/match
  • Cards3.48 cards/match
  • Fouls16.1 fouls/match
  • Clean-sheet frequency26%
  • Scoring frequency58%

How competition percentiles work

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade D · UnavailableUnavailable — unavailable
Season samples1 / 1home / away teams
Recent samples1 / 1last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMarítimoCasa Pia
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
Head-to-headMarítimo — Casa Pia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this