PitchMath
Liga Profesional de Fútbol · 2026

Vélez Sarsfield 1–0 Estudiantes de La Plata · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vélez Sarsfield won 1–0.

Shots
116
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
1.480.37
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vélez Sarsfield beat Estudiantes de La Plata 1–0. Recorded in this match (Vélez Sarsfield – Estudiantes de La Plata): shots 11–6, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 1.48–0.37, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Estudiantes de La Plata's recent record differs from the season

weak

Estudiantes de La Plata's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.04 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Estudiantes de La Plata have a visible away split

moderate

Estudiantes de La Plata's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match14 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Estudiantes de La Plata show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Estudiantes de La Plata's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsVélez Sarsfield · Estudiantes de La Plata14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVélez SarsfieldEstudiantes de La PlataBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match14 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match11.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots6 shotsVélez Sarsfield 11 shots, Estudiantes de La Plata 6 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsVélez Sarsfield 3 shots, Estudiantes de La Plata 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.48 xG0.37 xGVélez Sarsfield 1.48 xG, Estudiantes de La Plata 0.37 xG
  • Possession45%55%Vélez Sarsfield 45%, Estudiantes de La Plata 55%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerVélez Sarsfield 5 corners, Estudiantes de La Plata 1 corner
  • Fouls16 fouls18 foulsVélez Sarsfield 16 fouls, Estudiantes de La Plata 18 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards5 cardsVélez Sarsfield 2 cards, Estudiantes de La Plata 5 cards
  • Passes373 passes466 passesVélez Sarsfield 373 passes, Estudiantes de La Plata 466 passes
  • Pass accuracy66.8%74.5%Vélez Sarsfield 66.8%, Estudiantes de La Plata 74.5%
  • Shots inside box9 shots5 shotsVélez Sarsfield 9 shots, Estudiantes de La Plata 5 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks2 blocksVélez Sarsfield 3 blocks, Estudiantes de La Plata 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves2 savesVélez Sarsfield 2 saves, Estudiantes de La Plata 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside5 offsidesVélez Sarsfield 1 offside, Estudiantes de La Plata 5 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Vélez Sarsfield
0Draws
0Estudiantes de La Plata
Estudiantes de La Plata — Vélez Sarsfield · Liga Profesional de Fútbol0–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vélez Sarsfield favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Estudiantes de La Plata in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vélez Sarsfield27 matchesEstudiantes de La Plata25 matches
1.19 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/251.04 goals/match
0.74 goals/matchGoals allowed27/25▲ 0.64 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲ 1.3 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots27/25▲ 14 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target27/25▲ 5.04 shots/match
53.6%Possession27/25● 55.6%
4.44 corners/match ●Corners27/254.12 corners/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls27/2512 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Sept 2026, 04:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVélez SarsfieldEstudiantes de La Plata
CompetitionLiga Profesional de Fútbol
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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