PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025

KRC Genk 2–1 FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

KRC Genk won 2–1.

Shots
2510
Shots on target
89
Expected goals
1.851.76
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

KRC Genk beat FCV Dender 2–1. Recorded in this match (KRC Genk – FCV Dender): shots 25–10, shots on target 8–9, expected goals 1.85–1.76, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FCV Dender's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FCV Dender's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.3 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.3 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

KRC Genk show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

KRC Genk's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.4 shots/match ▲ShotsKRC Genk · FCV Dender8.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricKRC GenkFCV DenderBaseline
Shots17.4 shots/match8.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match14.1 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

KRC Genk have recorded the higher season possession share.

63.4% ●PossessionKRC Genk · FCV Dender47.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricKRC GenkFCV DenderBaseline
Possession63.4%47.7%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots25 shots10 shotsKRC Genk 25 shots, FCV Dender 10 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots9 shotsKRC Genk 8 shots, FCV Dender 9 shots
  • Expected goals1.85 xG1.76 xGKRC Genk 1.85 xG, FCV Dender 1.76 xG
  • Possession66%34%KRC Genk 66%, FCV Dender 34%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersKRC Genk 8 corners, FCV Dender 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls15 foulsKRC Genk 11 fouls, FCV Dender 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ken Nkuba · KRC Genk · 1′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKonstantinos Karetsas · KRC Genk · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYaimar Medina · KRC Genk · 88′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJarne Steuckers · KRC Genk · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Heynen · KRC Genk · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYaimar Medina · KRC Genk · 57′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJarne Steuckers · KRC Genk · 58′ · 0.02 xG · on targetYaimar Medina · KRC Genk · 65′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNathan Rodes · FCV Dender · 66′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKen Nkuba · KRC Genk · 83′ · 0.02 xG · goalMalcolm Viltard · FCV Dender · 8′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKonstantinos Karetsas · KRC Genk · 33′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKonstantinos Karetsas · KRC Genk · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKen Nkuba · KRC Genk · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNoah Adedeji-Sternberg · KRC Genk · 41′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuc De Fougerolles · FCV Dender · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBryan Heynen · KRC Genk · 19′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJarne Steuckers · KRC Genk · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJusef Erabi · KRC Genk · 53′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 10′ · 0.07 xG · goalNoah Adedeji-Sternberg · KRC Genk · 56′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKonstantinos Karetsas · KRC Genk · 57′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRobin Mirisola · KRC Genk · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Berte · FCV Dender · 42′ · 0.11 xG · on targetHyeon-gyu Oh · KRC Genk · 89′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDavid Toshevski · FCV Dender · 74′ · 0.12 xG · on targetHyeon-gyu Oh · KRC Genk · 73′ · 0.15 xG · on targetMujaid Sadick · KRC Genk · 59′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Berte · FCV Dender · 44′ · 0.18 xG · on targetBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 23′ · 0.24 xG · on targetJusef Erabi · KRC Genk · 45′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedNoah Mbamba · FCV Dender · 39′ · 0.34 xG · on targetHyeon-gyu Oh · KRC Genk · 90′ · 0.34 xG · on targetBryan Heynen · KRC Genk · 45′ · 0.52 xG · goalLuc Marijnissen · FCV Dender · 90′ · 0.60 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

KRC Genk: 25 shots, 8 on target, 2.22 xG. FCV Dender: 10 shots, 9 on target, 1.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Bryan Heynen · KRC Genk · 45′Ken Nkuba · KRC Genk · 83′Bruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 10′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: KRC Genk 2.22 xG · FCV Dender 1.76 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2KRC Genk
0Draws
0FCV Dender
FCV Dender — KRC Genk · Belgian Pro League0–1
KRC Genk — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: KRC Genk favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · FCV Dender in 2

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

KRC Genk11 matchesFCV Dender10 matches
1.45 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/100.3 goals/match
1.36 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/101.5 goals/match
1.34 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/100.76 xG/match
17.4 shots/match ▲Shots11/108.7 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/103.4 shots/match
63.4% ●Possession11/1047.7%
6.18 corners/match ●Corners11/102.9 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls11/109.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsKRC GenkFCV Dender
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
Head-to-headKRC Genk — FCV Dender
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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