PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025

CD Nacional 1–2 AVS - Futebol SAD · Primeira Liga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

AVS - Futebol SAD won 1–2.

Shots
2519
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
1.831.64
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

AVS - Futebol SAD beat CD Nacional 2–1. Recorded in this match (CD Nacional – AVS - Futebol SAD): shots 25–19, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 1.83–1.64, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AVS - Futebol SAD's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AVS - Futebol SAD's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.75 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

CD Nacional show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

CD Nacional's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.4 shots/match ▲ShotsCD Nacional · AVS - Futebol SAD11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCD NacionalAVS - Futebol SADBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match11.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against14.9 shots/match15.3 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots25 shots19 shotsCD Nacional 25 shots, AVS - Futebol SAD 19 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsCD Nacional 6 shots, AVS - Futebol SAD 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.83 xG1.64 xGCD Nacional 1.83 xG, AVS - Futebol SAD 1.64 xG
  • Possession68%32%CD Nacional 68%, AVS - Futebol SAD 32%
  • Corners8 corners6 cornersCD Nacional 8 corners, AVS - Futebol SAD 6 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls14 foulsCD Nacional 8 fouls, AVS - Futebol SAD 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Daniel Júnior · CD Nacional · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme Neiva · AVS - Futebol SAD · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFilipe Soares · CD Nacional · 4′ · 0.02 xG · goalPedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Júnior · CD Nacional · 10′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTunde Akinsola · AVS - Futebol SAD · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Veron · CD Nacional · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Júnior · CD Nacional · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 82′ · 0.02 xG · on targetZe Vitor · CD Nacional · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme Neiva · AVS - Futebol SAD · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTunde Akinsola · AVS - Futebol SAD · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPaulinho Bóia · CD Nacional · 60′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLucas João · CD Nacional · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLiziero · CD Nacional · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLéo Santos · CD Nacional · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChiheb Labidi · CD Nacional · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRoni · AVS - Futebol SAD · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Veron · CD Nacional · 28′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme Neiva · AVS - Futebol SAD · 38′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDiego Duarte · AVS - Futebol SAD · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRoni · AVS - Futebol SAD · 33′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJosé Gomes · CD Nacional · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · CD Nacional · 40′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLucas João · CD Nacional · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · CD Nacional · 89′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · CD Nacional · 84′ · 0.11 xG · on targetLucas João · CD Nacional · 86′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTunde Akinsola · AVS - Futebol SAD · 50′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLucas João · CD Nacional · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme Neiva · AVS - Futebol SAD · 57′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · CD Nacional · 7′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedZe Vitor · CD Nacional · 25′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · CD Nacional · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Vitor · AVS - Futebol SAD · 32′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedTunde Akinsola · AVS - Futebol SAD · 80′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJosé Gomes · CD Nacional · 15′ · 0.18 xG · on targetPedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 22′ · 0.18 xG · goalJesús Ramírez · CD Nacional · 25′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme Neiva · AVS - Futebol SAD · 63′ · 0.27 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

CD Nacional: 24 shots, 6 on target, 1.82 xG. AVS - Futebol SAD: 19 shots, 3 on target, 1.51 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Filipe Soares · CD Nacional · 4′Pedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 22′Guilherme Neiva · AVS - Futebol SAD · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: CD Nacional 1.82 xG · AVS - Futebol SAD 1.51 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1CD Nacional
2Draws
0AVS - Futebol SAD
AVS - Futebol SAD — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga2–2
CD Nacional — AVS - Futebol SAD · Primeira Liga3–1
AVS - Futebol SAD — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CD Nacional favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · AVS - Futebol SAD in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CD Nacional34 matchesAVS - Futebol SAD32 matches
1.12 goals/match ▲Goals scored34/320.75 goals/match
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals allowed34/322.06 goals/match
1.2 xG/match ▲Expected goals33/320.92 xG/match
13.4 shots/match ▲Shots34/3211.2 shots/match
4.44 shots/match ▲Shots on target34/323.06 shots/match
47.2% ●Possession34/3239.6%
4.44 corners/match ●Corners34/323.72 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls34/3214 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCD NacionalAVS - Futebol SAD
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCD Nacional — AVS - Futebol SAD
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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