PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Milan 2–1 FK Crvena zvezda · UEFA Champions League

Milan

LLWWW
2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 2–1.

Shots
209
Shots on target
104
Expected goals
20.49
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Milan beat FK Crvena zvezda 2–1. Recorded in this match (Milan – FK Crvena zvezda): shots 20–9, shots on target 10–4, expected goals 2–0.49, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FK Crvena zvezda's recent record differs from the season

weak

FK Crvena zvezda's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match10.5 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.7 shots/match ▲ShotsMilan · FK Crvena zvezda10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMilanFK Crvena zvezdaBaseline
Shots14.7 shots/match10.5 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against14.3 shots/match15.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.7% ●PossessionMilan · FK Crvena zvezda39.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMilanFK Crvena zvezdaBaseline
Possession53.7%39.5%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots9 shotsMilan 20 shots, FK Crvena zvezda 9 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots4 shotsMilan 10 shots, FK Crvena zvezda 4 shots
  • Expected goals2 xG0.49 xGMilan 2 xG, FK Crvena zvezda 0.49 xG
  • Possession52%48%Milan 52%, FK Crvena zvezda 48%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersMilan 6 corners, FK Crvena zvezda 4 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls11 foulsMilan 18 fouls, FK Crvena zvezda 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Uroš Spajić · FK Crvena zvezda · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 9′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTimi Max Elšnik · FK Crvena zvezda · 51′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMirko Ivanić · FK Crvena zvezda · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGuélor Kanga · FK Crvena zvezda · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTheo Hernández · Milan · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTammy Abraham · Milan · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYunus Musah · Milan · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTheo Hernández · Milan · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMalick Thiaw · Milan · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFrancesco Camarda · Milan · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDavide Calabria · Milan · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOgnjen Mimović · FK Crvena zvezda · 47′ · 0.05 xG · on targetEmerson Royal · Milan · 84′ · 0.05 xG · on targetYoung-woo Seol · FK Crvena zvezda · 17′ · 0.06 xG · on targetYoussouf Fofana · Milan · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetTammy Abraham · Milan · 30′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNemanja Radonjić · FK Crvena zvezda · 67′ · 0.08 xG · goalAndrija Maksimović · FK Crvena zvezda · 17′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMirko Ivanić · FK Crvena zvezda · 78′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 82′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedFrancesco Camarda · Milan · 87′ · 0.12 xG · on targetRafael Leão · Milan · 42′ · 0.13 xG · goalTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 82′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedTammy Abraham · Milan · 45′ · 0.19 xG · on targetTammy Abraham · Milan · 54′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedTammy Abraham · Milan · 87′ · 0.30 xG · goalRafael Leão · Milan · 14′ · 0.32 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Milan: 20 shots, 10 on target, 2.04 xG. FK Crvena zvezda: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.46 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Rafael Leão · Milan · 42′Tammy Abraham · Milan · 87′Nemanja Radonjić · FK Crvena zvezda · 67′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 2.04 xG · FK Crvena zvezda 0.46 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · FK Crvena zvezda in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan6 matchesFK Crvena zvezda8 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/81.63 goals/match
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/82.63 goals/match
1.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/60.8 xG/match
14.7 shots/match ▲Shots6/810.5 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/83.88 shots/match
53.7% ●Possession6/839.5%
5 corners/match ●Corners6/84.13 corners/match
9.83 fouls/matchFouls6/810.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 12 Dec 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanFK Crvena zvezda
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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