PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Stade Brestois 1–1 Toulouse · Ligue 1

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Stade Brestois and Toulouse drew 1–1.

Shots
139
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
1.471.17
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Stade Brestois and Toulouse drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Stade Brestois – Toulouse): shots 13–9, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 1.47–1.17, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Stade Brestois's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stade Brestois's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.1 shots/match ▲ShotsStade Brestois · Toulouse9.25 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStade BrestoisToulouseBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match9.25 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against10.9 shots/match15.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots9 shotsStade Brestois 13 shots, Toulouse 9 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsStade Brestois 2 shots, Toulouse 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.47 xG1.17 xGStade Brestois 1.47 xG, Toulouse 1.17 xG
  • Possession55%45%Stade Brestois 55%, Toulouse 45%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersStade Brestois 3 corners, Toulouse 5 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls18 foulsStade Brestois 18 fouls, Toulouse 18 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 36′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLilian Brassier · Stade Brestois · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLogan Costa · Toulouse · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 32′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 88′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 39′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 55′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Le Douaron · Stade Brestois · 23′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 14′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJonas Martin · Stade Brestois · 41′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 27′ · 0.22 xG · goalThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 73′ · 0.35 xG · on targetThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 72′ · 0.36 xG · on targetMartín Satriano · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.54 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.51 xG. Toulouse: 9 shots, 3 on target, 1.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Martín Satriano · Stade Brestois · 90′Frank Magri · Toulouse · 27′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 1.51 xG · Toulouse 1.19 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Stade Brestois
1Draws
0Toulouse
Stade Brestois — Toulouse · Ligue 13–1
Toulouse — Stade Brestois · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Brestois favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Brestois8 matchesToulouse8 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.25 goals/match
0.88 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/81.13 goals/match
1.52 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/80.88 xG/match
15.1 shots/match ▲Shots8/89.25 shots/match
5.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/83.88 shots/match
50.3% ●Possession8/846%
6.38 corners/match ●Corners8/83.38 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls8/814 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade BrestoisToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headStade Brestois — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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