PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Lille 1–1 Toulouse · Ligue 1

Lille

WDWWD
1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille and Toulouse drew 1–1.

Shots
142
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
2.50.1
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille and Toulouse drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Lille – Toulouse): shots 14–2, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 2.5–0.1, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsLille · Toulouse10.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleToulouseBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match10.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against8.58 shots/match15.5 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lille have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.4% ●PossessionLille · Toulouse47.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLilleToulouseBaseline
Possession57.4%47.5%50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots2 shotsLille 14 shots, Toulouse 2 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotLille 6 shots, Toulouse 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.5 xG0.1 xGLille 2.5 xG, Toulouse 0.1 xG
  • Possession60%40%Lille 60%, Toulouse 40%
  • Corners11 corners1 cornerLille 11 corners, Toulouse 1 corner
  • Fouls12 fouls16 foulsLille 12 fouls, Toulouse 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

César Gelabert · Toulouse · 49′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTiago Santos · Lille · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeny Yoro · Lille · 30′ · 0.05 xG · goalTiago Santos · Lille · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJonathan David · Lille · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRémy Cabella · Lille · 86′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 65′ · 0.08 xG · goalJonathan David · Lille · 83′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 79′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 75′ · 0.26 xG · on targetAngel Gomes · Lille · 55′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 60′ · 0.45 xG · on targetRémy Cabella · Lille · 82′ · 0.84 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 82′ · 0.91 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 14 shots, 5 on target, 3.25 xG. Toulouse: 2 shots, 1 on target, 0.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Leny Yoro · Lille · 30′Thijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 3.25 xG · Toulouse 0.09 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Lille
0Draws
0Toulouse
Toulouse — Lille · Ligue 10–2
Lille — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille12 matchesToulouse12 matches
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/121.08 goals/match
0.92 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/121.33 goals/match
1.35 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/120.98 xG/match
12.3 shots/match ▲Shots12/1210.1 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/123.92 shots/match
57.4% ●Possession12/1247.5%
5.33 corners/match ●Corners12/123.42 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1214.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headLille — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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