PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Toulouse 1–1 Lorient · Ligue 1

1–1Historical match

Lorient

WLDLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse and Lorient drew 1–1.

Shots
1111
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
1.020.8
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse and Lorient drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – Lorient): shots 11–11, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 1.02–0.8, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lorient's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots11 shotsToulouse 11 shots, Lorient 11 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsToulouse 6 shots, Lorient 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.02 xG0.8 xGToulouse 1.02 xG, Lorient 0.8 xG
  • Possession52%48%Toulouse 52%, Lorient 48%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersToulouse 3 corners, Lorient 4 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls10 foulsToulouse 16 fouls, Lorient 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Romain Faivre · Lorient · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRomain Faivre · Lorient · 17′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBenjamin Mendy · Lorient · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 14′ · 0.03 xG · on targetThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Cissoko · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSiriné Doucouré · Lorient · 2′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNiklas Schmidt · Toulouse · 15′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIbrahim Cissoko · Toulouse · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEli Junior Kroupi · Lorient · 50′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 68′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRomain Faivre · Lorient · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDarlin Yongwa · Lorient · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 54′ · 0.06 xG · on targetThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 88′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 10′ · 0.08 xG · on targetIbrahim Cissoko · Toulouse · 47′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJulien Laporte · Lorient · 87′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 43′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 90′ · 0.22 xG · goalThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 72′ · 0.50 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.03 xG. Lorient: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.78 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Thijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 72′Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 1.03 xG · Lorient 0.78 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Toulouse
1Draws
0Lorient
Lorient — Toulouse · Ligue 10–1
Toulouse — Lorient · Ligue 12–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Lorient in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse14 matchesLorient14 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 1.29 goals/match
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/141.79 goals/match
1.01 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/140.86 xG/match
10.8 shots/match ▲Shots14/148.86 shots/match
4 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/133.69 shots/match
47.8% ●Possession14/1445.1%
3.29 corners/matchCorners14/14● 3.93 corners/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseLorient
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headToulouse — Lorient
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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