PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Toulouse 1–2 Lille · Ligue 1

1–2Historical match

Lille

LWLWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille won 1–2.

Shots
96
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
0.910.4
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat Toulouse 2–1. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – Lille): shots 9–6, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 0.91–0.4, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.52 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lille have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.2%PossessionToulouse · Lille● 57.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricToulouseLilleBaseline
Possession45.2%57.6%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match ▲ShotsToulouse · Lille12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricToulouseLilleBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against9.83 shots/match10.2 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots6 shotsToulouse 9 shots, Lille 6 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsToulouse 5 shots, Lille 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.91 xG0.4 xGToulouse 0.91 xG, Lille 0.4 xG
  • Possession43%57%Toulouse 43%, Lille 57%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersToulouse 4 corners, Lille 2 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls11 foulsToulouse 15 fouls, Lille 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 70′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMitchel Bakker · Lille · 45′ · 0.04 xG · goalMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 21′ · 0.05 xG · goalCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 68′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDjibril Sidibé · Toulouse · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEthan Mbappé · Lille · 86′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 3′ · 0.08 xG · on targetOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 8′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 86′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 34′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 6′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 77′ · 0.16 xG · on targetCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 42′ · 0.18 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 9 shots, 5 on target, 0.91 xG. Lille: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 42′Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 21′Mitchel Bakker · Lille · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 0.91 xG · Lille 0.51 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Toulouse
1Draws
3Lille
Lille — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1
Toulouse — Lille · Ligue 13–1
Lille — Toulouse · Ligue 11–1
Toulouse — Lille · Ligue 10–2
Lille — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Lille in 7 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse29 matchesLille29 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲ 1.52 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲ 1.07 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals29/29▲ 1.63 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots29/29▲ 12.6 shots/match
4.48 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲ 4.97 shots/match
45.2%Possession29/29● 57.6%
4.66 corners/matchCorners29/29● 4.79 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls29/2912.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseLille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headToulouse — Lille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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