PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 2 Sept 2023, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBolognaCagliari
Shots16 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals2.32 xG/match▲0.47 xG/match
Possession72%●28%
Corners5 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMichel Aebischer · Bologna · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJhon Lucumí · Bologna · 62′ · 0.02 xG · on targetZito Luvumbo · Cagliari · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJesper Karlsson · Bologna · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDan Ndoye · Bologna · 63′ · 0.03 xG · on targetVictor Kristiansen · Bologna · 89′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLewis Ferguson · Bologna · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Di Pardo · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJhon Lucumí · Bologna · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedStefan Posch · Bologna · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedZito Luvumbo · Cagliari · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 30′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJoshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 14′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJhon Lucumí · Bologna · 51′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 59′ · 0.09 xG · goalIbrahim Sulemana · Cagliari · 79′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedZito Luvumbo · Cagliari · 22′ · 0.19 xG · goalJesper Karlsson · Bologna · 30′ · 0.32 xG · on targetGiovanni Fabbian · Bologna · 89′ · 0.62 xG · goalRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 75′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bologna: 16 shots, 7 on target, 2.39 xG. Cagliari: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 59′Giovanni Fabbian · Bologna · 89′Zito Luvumbo · Cagliari · 22′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bologna 2.39 xG · Cagliari 0.49 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Bologna have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Cagliari show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match▲ShotsBologna · Cagliari9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBolognaCagliariBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match9 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against10 shots/match14.7 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Bologna have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.7%●PossessionBologna · Cagliari34.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBolognaCagliariBaseline
Possession55.7%34.7%52.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bologna
0Draws
1Cagliari
Cagliari — Bologna · Serie A2–1
Bologna — Cagliari · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bologna favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Cagliari in 0 · 13 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/30.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/31.33 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/30.51 xG/match
0.73 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.4 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/39 shots/match
10 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/314.7 shots/match
5.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/31.67 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/34 shots/match
55.7%●Possessionseason · 3/334.7%
3.33 corners/match●Cornersseason · 3/33 corners/match
4.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/36.67 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/311.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/333%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/333%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bologna79.2
Cagliari4.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bologna55.6
Cagliari8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bologna62.5
Cagliari47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bologna54.2
Cagliari62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bologna16.7
Cagliari50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bologna20.8
Cagliari12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bologna40.6
Cagliari19.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bologna3 matchesCagliari3 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/31.33 goals/match
1.29 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.51 xG/match
14.3 shots/match▲Shots3/39 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.67 shots/match
55.7%●Possession3/334.7%
3.33 corners/match●Corners3/33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFouls3/311.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bologna2 matchesCagliari2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals2/2—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards0/0—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.91 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Sept 2023, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBolognaCagliari
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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