Serie A · 2023Sun, 17 Sept 2023, 16:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fiorentina

WDL

3–2Full-time recap

Atalanta

WLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fiorentina	Atalanta
Shots	15 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.12 xG/match▲	0.7 xG/match
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	3 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	8 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Fiorentina: 15 shots, 8 on target, 1.12 xG. Atalanta: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 1.12 xG · Atalanta 0.71 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Fiorentina show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10 shots/match▲ShotsFiorentina · Atalanta15.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Fiorentina	Atalanta	Baseline
Shots	10 shots/match	15.8 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	10.5 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.3%●PossessionFiorentina · Atalanta49.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Fiorentina	Atalanta	Baseline
Possession	61.3%	49.3%	49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Fiorentina

1Draws

1Atalanta

17 Apr 2023Fiorentina — Atalanta · Serie A1–1

2 Oct 2022Atalanta — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0

20 Feb 2022Fiorentina — Atalanta · Serie A1–0

11 Sept 2021Atalanta — Fiorentina · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Atalanta in 0 · 13 too close

2.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/42 goals/match

2.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41.25 goals/match

0.96 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.23 xG/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/40.66 xG/match

10 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/415.8 shots/match

10.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/411.8 shots/match

4.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/46 shots/match

4.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/44.5 shots/match

61.3%●Possessionseason · 4/449.3%

2.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/4●6.25 corners/match

2.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/44 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/412 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/450%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/4100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina92.5

Atalanta52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina59.2

Atalanta81.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina40

Atalanta58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina7.5

Atalanta92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina57.5

Atalanta50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina12.5

Atalanta77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina41.2

Atalanta75.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fiorentina4 matchesAtalanta4 matches

2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/42 goals/match

2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.25 goals/match

0.96 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.23 xG/match

10 shots/matchShots4/4▲15.8 shots/match

4.75 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲6 shots/match

61.3%●Possession4/449.3%

2.75 corners/matchCorners4/4●6.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fiorentina2 matchesAtalanta3 matches

—Goals scored2/31.67 goals/match

—Goals allowed2/31.67 goals/match

—Expected goals2/31.22 xG/match

—Shots2/315 shots/match

—Shots on target2/35.33 shots/match

—Possession2/352%

—Corners2/36 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/312.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.9 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples4 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Sept 2023, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4