PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 23 Sept 2023, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Milan

WWWL
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMilanHellas Verona
Shots9 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals0.93 xG/match▲0.62 xG/match
Possession54%●46%
Corners2 corners/match3 corners/match●
Fouls12 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Michael Folorunsho · Hellas Verona · 7′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCyril Ngonge · Hellas Verona · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Milan · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Milan · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCyril Ngonge · Hellas Verona · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCyril Ngonge · Hellas Verona · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Milan · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFederico Bonazzoli · Hellas Verona · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDavide Faraoni · Hellas Verona · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMichael Folorunsho · Hellas Verona · 74′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFederico Bonazzoli · Hellas Verona · 56′ · 0.08 xG · on targetChristian Pulišić · Milan · 72′ · 0.11 xG · on targetYunus Musah · Milan · 86′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMichael Folorunsho · Hellas Verona · 20′ · 0.12 xG · on targetRafael Leão · Milan · 62′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Milan · 62′ · 0.18 xG · on targetDavide Faraoni · Hellas Verona · 7′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 8′ · 0.25 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Milan: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.93 xG. Hellas Verona: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.63 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Rafael Leão · Milan · 8′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 0.93 xG · Hellas Verona 0.63 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hellas Verona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Milan have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Hellas Verona show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Hellas Verona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.6 shots/match▲ShotsMilan · Hellas Verona9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMilanHellas VeronaBaseline
Shots10.6 shots/match9 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.4%●PossessionMilan · Hellas Verona43.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMilanHellas VeronaBaseline
Possession55.4%43.8%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Milan
0Draws
0Hellas Verona
Milan — Hellas Verona · Serie A3–1
Hellas Verona — Milan · Serie A1–2
Hellas Verona — Milan · Serie A1–3
Milan — Hellas Verona · Serie A3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Milan favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Hellas Verona in 1 · 4 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 5/50.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/5▲1 goals/match
1.52 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 5/50.59 xG/match
1.1 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 5/51.11 xG/match
10.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 5/59 shots/match
12.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 5/513.8 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 5/52.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 5/55.2 shots/match
55.4%●Possessionseason · 5/543.8%
3 corners/match●Cornersseason · 5/52.4 corners/match
3 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 5/56 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/515.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/540%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 5/560%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Milan67.5
Hellas Verona17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Milan54.2
Hellas Verona19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Milan55.8
Hellas Verona41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Milan12.5
Hellas Verona22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Milan27.5
Hellas Verona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Milan17.5
Hellas Verona7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Milan33.8
Hellas Verona32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Milan5 matchesHellas Verona5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.59 xG/match
10.6 shots/match▲Shots5/59 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
55.4%●Possession5/543.8%
3 corners/match●Corners5/52.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/515.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Milan2 matchesHellas Verona3 matches
—Goals scored2/30.67 goals/match
—Goals allowed2/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goals2/30.59 xG/match
—Shots2/310.3 shots/match
—Shots on target2/33 shots/match
—Possession2/350.7%
—Corners2/32.67 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
—Fouls2/314 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.76 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Sept 2023, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMilanHellas Verona
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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