Serie A · 2023Sat, 30 Sept 2023, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Salernitana

DLLDL

0–4Full-time recap

Inter

WWWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Salernitana	Inter
Shots	12 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.62 xG/match	2.35 xG/match▲
Possession	36%	64%●
Corners	3 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Salernitana: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.61 xG. Inter: 16 shots, 6 on target, 2.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Salernitana 0.61 xG · Inter 2.39 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Salernitana's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Salernitana, Inter. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Salernitana's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Salernitana's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.57 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.2 goals/match	0.57 goals/match	1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Salernitana, Inter.

3.09 days▲Rest daysSalernitana · Inter3 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Salernitana	Inter	Baseline
Rest days	3.09 days	3 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match▲ShotsSalernitana · Inter18 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Salernitana	Inter	Baseline
Shots	11.7 shots/match	18 shots/match	11.7 shots/match
Shots against	13.7 shots/match	10.1 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Salernitana

1Draws

3Inter

7 Apr 2023Salernitana — Inter · Serie A1–1

16 Oct 2022Inter — Salernitana · Serie A2–0

4 Mar 2022Inter — Salernitana · Serie A5–0

17 Dec 2021Salernitana — Inter · Serie A0–5

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Salernitana favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Inter in 11 · 2 too close

0.57 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲2.71 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.43 goals/match

0.68 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲2.13 xG/match

1.81 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.69 xG/match

11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲18 shots/match

13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲10.1 shots/match

3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲5.57 shots/match

4.71 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲2.57 shots/match

50.3%Possessionseason · 7/7●54.7%

3.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/7●5.43 corners/match

5.86 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲2.86 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/711.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲71%

43%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Salernitana47.5

Inter72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Salernitana37.5

Inter94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Salernitana18.3

Inter92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Salernitana42.5

Inter97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Salernitana62.5

Inter25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Salernitana25

Inter72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Salernitana44.4

Inter70.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Salernitana7 matchesInter7 matches

0.57 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.71 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.43 goals/match

0.68 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.13 xG/match

11.7 shots/matchShots7/7▲18 shots/match

3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.57 shots/match

50.3%Possession7/7●54.7%

3.86 corners/matchCorners7/7●5.43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls7/711.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Salernitana4 matchesInter3 matches

0.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/3▲2.33 goals/match

2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/3▲0 goals/match

0.75 xG/matchExpected goals4/3▲1.64 xG/match

13.5 shots/matchShots4/3▲18.7 shots/match

4.25 shots/matchShots on target4/3▲5 shots/match

49.3%Possession4/3●64%

4.75 corners/matchCorners4/3●5.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls4/310.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Sept 2023, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4