PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Genoa 0–1 Milan · Serie A

Genoa

LDLWD
0–1Historical match

Milan

WLWWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 0–1.

Shots
712
Shots on target
13
Expected goals
0.560.64
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Milan beat Genoa 1–0. Recorded in this match (Genoa – Milan): shots 7–12, shots on target 1–3, expected goals 0.56–0.64, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Genoa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Genoa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

6.88 shots/match ▲ShotsGenoa · Milan12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGenoaMilanBaseline
Shots6.88 shots/match12 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

36%PossessionGenoa · Milan● 56.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricGenoaMilanBaseline
Possession36%56.6%50.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots12 shotsGenoa 7 shots, Milan 12 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot3 shotsGenoa 1 shot, Milan 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.56 xG0.64 xGGenoa 0.56 xG, Milan 0.64 xG
  • Possession41%59%Genoa 41%, Milan 59%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersGenoa 3 corners, Milan 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsGenoa 10 fouls, Milan 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Theo Hernández · Milan · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRadu Drăguşin · Genoa · 76′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAlessandro Florenzi · Milan · 16′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMorten Frendrup · Genoa · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Florenzi · Milan · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Florenzi · Milan · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDavide Calabria · Milan · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJohan Vásquez · Genoa · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 19′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJohan Vásquez · Genoa · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 65′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLuka Jović · Milan · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuka Jović · Milan · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Genoa · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCaleb Ekuban · Genoa · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 81′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedCaleb Ekuban · Genoa · 77′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Genoa: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.54 xG. Milan: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.55 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Genoa 0.54 xG · Milan 0.55 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Genoa
0Draws
2Milan
Milan — Genoa · Serie A2–0
Genoa — Milan · Serie A0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Genoa favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Milan in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Genoa8 matchesMilan8 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 2 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1 goal/match
0.61 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.58 xG/match
6.88 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 12 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 4.88 shots/match
36%Possession8/8● 56.6%
1.75 corners/matchCorners8/8● 3.63 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls8/811.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGenoaMilan
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headGenoa — Milan
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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