PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Lazio 1–0 Fiorentina · Serie A

Lazio

DWLWW
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lazio won 1–0.

Shots
119
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
20.41
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lazio beat Fiorentina 1–0. Recorded in this match (Lazio – Fiorentina): shots 11–9, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 2–0.41, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lazio's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lazio's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.3 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.3 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots9 shotsLazio 11 shots, Fiorentina 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsLazio 4 shots, Fiorentina 5 shots
  • Expected goals2 xG0.41 xGLazio 2 xG, Fiorentina 0.41 xG
  • Possession47%53%Lazio 47%, Fiorentina 53%
  • Corners0 corners4 cornersLazio 0 corners, Fiorentina 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls17 foulsLazio 12 fouls, Fiorentina 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mattia Zaccagni · Lazio · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuis Alberto · Lazio · 47′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 53′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntonín Barák · Fiorentina · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatías Vecino · Lazio · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedM'bala Nzola · Fiorentina · 85′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNicolás González · Fiorentina · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatías Vecino · Lazio · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGiacomo Bonaventura · Fiorentina · 11′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMaxime López · Fiorentina · 89′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNicolás González · Fiorentina · 37′ · 0.10 xG · on targetLuis Alberto · Lazio · 65′ · 0.10 xG · on targetFelipe Anderson · Lazio · 70′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 58′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Anderson · Lazio · 70′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedLuis Alberto · Lazio · 12′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Anderson · Lazio · 58′ · 0.39 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lazio: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.21 xG. Fiorentina: 9 shots, 5 on target, 0.41 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lazio 1.21 xG · Fiorentina 0.41 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Lazio
1Draws
0Fiorentina
Lazio — Fiorentina · Serie A1–1
Fiorentina — Lazio · Serie A0–4
Fiorentina — Lazio · Serie A0–3
Lazio — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lazio favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lazio10 matchesFiorentina10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 1.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
1.26 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101.05 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots10/1011.9 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 4.4 shots/match
51.6%Possession10/10● 57.5%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/10● 4.9 corners/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 30 Oct 2023, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLazioFiorentina
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headLazio — Fiorentina
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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