PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sun, 26 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Roma

WWLWD
3–1Full-time recap

Udinese

DDDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRomaUdinese
Shots12 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.39 xG/match▲0.51 xG/match
Possession64%●36%
Corners7 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Lorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 48′ · 0.01 xG · on targetWalace · Udinese · 53′ · 0.01 xG · on targetSandi Lovrić · Udinese · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsaac Success · Udinese · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Cristante · Roma · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Udinese · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Mancini · Roma · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Mancini · Roma · 15′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 90′ · 0.08 xG · goalLeonardo Spinazzola · Roma · 49′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 49′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 22′ · 0.10 xG · on targetBryan Cristante · Roma · 89′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJaka Bijol · Udinese · 1′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Mancini · Roma · 20′ · 0.18 xG · goalFlorian Thauvin · Udinese · 57′ · 0.23 xG · goalPaulo Dybala · Roma · 81′ · 0.60 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Roma: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.39 xG. Udinese: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Gianluca Mancini · Roma · 20′Paulo Dybala · Roma · 81′Stephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 90′Florian Thauvin · Udinese · 57′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Roma 1.39 xG · Udinese 0.48 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Udinese's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Roma have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Udinese's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Udinese's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.69 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.69 goals/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.8%●PossessionRoma · Udinese43.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRomaUdineseBaseline
Possession54.8%43.1%51.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Roma
1Draws
1Udinese
Roma — Udinese · Serie A3–0
Udinese — Roma · Serie A4–0
Udinese — Roma · Serie A1–1
Roma — Udinese · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Roma favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Udinese in 0 · 4 too close

1.92 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/130.69 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.38 goals/match
1.42 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.24 xG/match
0.92 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/131.21 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/1312.5 shots/match
9.77 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 13/1311.6 shots/match
4.08 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/133.77 shots/match
2.77 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/133.54 shots/match
54.8%●Possessionseason · 13/1343.1%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135 corners/match
3.69 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 13/135.92 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1313.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1331%
85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1362%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Roma77.5
Udinese12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Roma68.3
Udinese39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Roma80.8
Udinese50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Roma42.5
Udinese77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Roma57.5
Udinese85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Roma62.5
Udinese62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Roma59.4
Udinese63.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Roma13 matchesUdinese13 matches
1.92 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.69 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.38 goals/match
1.42 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.24 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots13/1312.5 shots/match
4.08 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.77 shots/match
54.8%●Possession13/1343.1%
5 corners/matchCorners13/135 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Roma7 matchesUdinese7 matches
2.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.29 goals/match
1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals7/70.86 xG/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shots7/711 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.57 shots/match
54.6%●Possession7/739.9%
5.86 corners/match●Corners7/74.43 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.9 fouls/matchFouls7/713.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Nov 2023, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRomaUdinese
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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