PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Roma 1–3 Bologna · Serie A

Roma

WDWDW
1–3Historical match

Bologna

LWWDD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bologna won 1–3.

Shots
1411
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
2.071.07
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bologna beat Roma 3–1. Recorded in this match (Roma – Bologna): shots 14–11, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 2.07–1.07, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Roma's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.78 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots11 shotsRoma 14 shots, Bologna 11 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsRoma 5 shots, Bologna 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.07 xG1.07 xGRoma 2.07 xG, Bologna 1.07 xG
  • Possession53%47%Roma 53%, Bologna 47%
  • Corners8 corners2 cornersRoma 8 corners, Bologna 2 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls12 foulsRoma 8 fouls, Bologna 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Michel Aebischer · Bologna · 3′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedRick Karsdorp · Roma · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedStefan Posch · Bologna · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Paredes · Roma · 53′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSantiago Castro · Bologna · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Castro · Bologna · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDan Ndoye · Bologna · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · Bologna · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · Bologna · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · Bologna · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Dybala · Roma · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Baldanzi · Roma · 82′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOussama El Azzouzi · Bologna · 14′ · 0.08 xG · goalPaulo Dybala · Roma · 25′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Paredes · Roma · 20′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 9′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 45′ · 0.15 xG · goalLorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 86′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedSardar Azmoun · Roma · 55′ · 0.23 xG · on targetSardar Azmoun · Roma · 55′ · 0.36 xG · on targetBryan Cristante · Roma · 83′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blockedSardar Azmoun · Roma · 55′ · 0.57 xG · goalAlexis Saelemaekers · Bologna · 65′ · 0.61 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Roma: 14 shots, 4 on target, 2.35 xG. Bologna: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.04 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Sardar Azmoun · Roma · 55′Oussama El Azzouzi · Bologna · 14′Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 45′Alexis Saelemaekers · Bologna · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Roma 2.35 xG · Bologna 1.04 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Roma
2Draws
2Bologna
Bologna — Roma · Serie A2–0
Bologna — Roma · Serie A0–0
Roma — Bologna · Serie A1–0
Roma — Bologna · Serie A0–0
Bologna — Roma · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Roma favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Bologna in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Roma32 matchesBologna33 matches
1.78 goals/match ▲Goals scored32/331.45 goals/match
1.19 goals/matchGoals allowed32/33▲ 0.79 goals/match
1.38 xG/matchExpected goals32/331.32 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots32/33▲ 12.9 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target32/33▲ 4.52 shots/match
54.3%Possession32/33● 58.3%
4.25 corners/match ●Corners32/334.21 corners/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls32/3312.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 22 Apr 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRomaBologna
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headRoma — Bologna
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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