PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Parma 1–3 Lecce · Serie A

Parma

WDLDL
1–3Historical match

Lecce

LDWLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lecce won 1–3.

Shots
196
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
1.960.71
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lecce beat Parma 3–1. Recorded in this match (Parma – Lecce): shots 19–6, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 1.96–0.71, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.78 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots6 shotsParma 19 shots, Lecce 6 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsParma 7 shots, Lecce 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.96 xG0.71 xGParma 1.96 xG, Lecce 0.71 xG
  • Possession47%53%Parma 47%, Lecce 53%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersParma 3 corners, Lecce 2 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls14 foulsParma 8 fouls, Lecce 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Emanuele Valeri · Parma · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJesper Karlsson · Lecce · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedValentin Mihăilă · Parma · 21′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMatteo Cancellieri · Parma · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnas Haj Mohamed · Parma · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Cancellieri · Parma · 55′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLautaro Valenti · Parma · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Parma · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDrissa Camara · Parma · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Parma · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedValentin Mihăilă · Parma · 41′ · 0.03 xG · on targetValentin Mihăilă · Parma · 39′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMilan Đurić · Parma · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEmanuele Valeri · Parma · 89′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDrissa Camara · Parma · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 36′ · 0.06 xG · goalTete Morente · Lecce · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Pierotti · Lecce · 63′ · 0.10 xG · goalSantiago Pierotti · Lecce · 90′ · 0.11 xG · goalAnge-Yoan Bonny · Parma · 47′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Parma · 22′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAnge-Yoan Bonny · Parma · 47′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 29′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Cancellieri · Parma · 50′ · 0.34 xG · on targetEmanuele Valeri · Parma · 34′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Parma: 19 shots, 7 on target, 1.98 xG. Lecce: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Emanuele Valeri · Parma · 34′Nikola Krstović · Lecce · 36′Santiago Pierotti · Lecce · 63′Santiago Pierotti · Lecce · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Parma 1.98 xG · Lecce 0.64 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Parma
2Draws
1Lecce
Lecce — Parma · Serie A2–2
Parma — Lecce · Serie B0–0
Lecce — Parma · Serie B4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Parma favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Lecce in 2 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Parma23 matchesLecce23 matches
1.26 goals/match ▲Goals scored23/230.78 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed23/231.78 goals/match
1.27 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/230.96 xG/match
12.8 shots/match ▲Shots23/2311.7 shots/match
4.13 shots/match ▲Shots on target23/233.39 shots/match
44.7% ●Possession23/2344.5%
5.04 corners/match ●Corners23/233.74 corners/match
9.57 fouls/matchFouls23/2312.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 31 Jan 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParmaLecce
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headParma — Lecce
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required