PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Cagliari 1–2 Lazio · Serie A

1–2Historical match

Lazio

DLDWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lazio won 1–2.

Shots
1511
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
1.491.29
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lazio beat Cagliari 2–1. Recorded in this match (Cagliari – Lazio): shots 15–11, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 1.49–1.29, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.48 corners/matchCornersCagliari · Lazio● 6.13 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricCagliariLazioBaseline
Corners5.48 corners/match6.13 corners/match4.56 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Cagliari have a visible home split

moderate

Cagliari's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots11 shotsCagliari 15 shots, Lazio 11 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsCagliari 5 shots, Lazio 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.49 xG1.29 xGCagliari 1.49 xG, Lazio 1.29 xG
  • Possession39%61%Cagliari 39%, Lazio 61%
  • Corners7 corners7 cornersCagliari 7 corners, Lazio 7 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls9 foulsCagliari 14 fouls, Lazio 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nicolas Viola · Cagliari · 6′ · 0.02 xG · on targetYerry Mina · Cagliari · 14′ · 0.02 xG · on targetValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlessio Romagnoli · Lazio · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Gigot · Lazio · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 85′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTommaso Augello · Cagliari · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMattia Felici · Cagliari · 86′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRoberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNadir Zortea · Cagliari · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 57′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRoberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMattia Felici · Cagliari · 77′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdam Marušić · Lazio · 4′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYerry Mina · Cagliari · 81′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMario Gila Fuentes · Lazio · 23′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAlessio Romagnoli · Lazio · 58′ · 0.09 xG · on targetGustav Isaksen · Lazio · 75′ · 0.09 xG · on targetNadir Zortea · Cagliari · 82′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMichel Adopo · Cagliari · 50′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 56′ · 0.25 xG · goalMattia Zaccagni · Lazio · 73′ · 0.26 xG · on targetValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 64′ · 0.38 xG · goalMattia Zaccagni · Lazio · 41′ · 0.44 xG · goalRoberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 12′ · 0.63 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cagliari: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.62 xG. Lazio: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Roberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 56′Mattia Zaccagni · Lazio · 41′Valentín Castellanos · Lazio · 64′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cagliari 1.62 xG · Lazio 1.52 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Cagliari
1Draws
4Lazio
Lazio — Cagliari · Serie A2–1
Cagliari — Lazio · Serie A1–3
Lazio — Cagliari · Serie A1–0
Cagliari — Lazio · Serie A0–3
Lazio — Cagliari · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cagliari favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Lazio in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cagliari23 matchesLazio23 matches
1.04 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲ 1.74 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 1.35 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.54 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 13.9 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲ 5.13 shots/match
46.7%Possession23/23● 55%
5.48 corners/matchCorners23/23● 6.13 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 3 Feb 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCagliariLazio
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headCagliari — Lazio
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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