Primeira Liga · 2026Full timeFull-time analysis
22Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC AlvercaCF Estrela Amadora
Shots14 shots 10 shots
Shots on target4 shots7 shots
Expected goals1.75 xG 1.29 xG
Possession46%54%
Corners2 corners 0 corners
Fouls10 fouls12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ianis Stoica · CF Estrela Amadora · 38′ · 0.01 xG · on targetNabil Touaizi · FC Alverca · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSteven Baseya · FC Alverca · 3′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDavy Gui · FC Alverca · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChiquinho · FC Alverca · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBénito · CF Estrela Amadora · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarco Essimi · FC Alverca · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNabil Touaizi · FC Alverca · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFigueiredo · FC Alverca · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVivaldo · FC Alverca · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChiquinho · FC Alverca · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVivaldo · FC Alverca · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Antonetti · CF Estrela Amadora · 56′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAbraham Marcus · CF Estrela Amadora · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetNabil Touaizi · FC Alverca · 11′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLeandro Antonetti · CF Estrela Amadora · 41′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAbraham Marcus · CF Estrela Amadora · 69′ · 0.11 xG · goalLeandro Antonetti · CF Estrela Amadora · 39′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Antonetti · CF Estrela Amadora · 51′ · 0.13 xG · goalIan Luccas · FC Alverca · 58′ · 0.22 xG · goalVivaldo · FC Alverca · 11′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedRobinho · CF Estrela Amadora · 21′ · 0.42 xG · on targetLeandro Antonetti · CF Estrela Amadora · 21′ · 0.45 xG · off target or blockedVivaldo · FC Alverca · 62′ · 0.74 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Alverca: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.72 xG. CF Estrela Amadora: 10 shots, 7 on target, 1.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ian Luccas · FC Alverca · 58′Vivaldo · FC Alverca · 62′Leandro Antonetti · CF Estrela Amadora · 51′Abraham Marcus · CF Estrela Amadora · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Alverca 1.72 xG · CF Estrela Amadora 1.48 xG.

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Alverca and CF Estrela Amadora drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (FC Alverca – CF Estrela Amadora): shots 14–10, shots on target 4–7, expected goals 1.75–1.29, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

Last 5 meetings

0FC Alverca
2Draws
0CF Estrela Amadora
FC AlvercaCF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga11
CF Estrela AmadoraFC Alverca · Primeira Liga22

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Season-opening preview

Current-season evidence is still building.

This competition's new season has only just started, so PitchMath does not yet hold enough completed matches for a current-season grade. The comparison below is last season's recorded data, shown as historical context.

1 / 2 matches toward the first current-season grade

Current season so far

Completed matches in the season being played. Kept separate from the historical block below.

  • FC Alverca1 matches
  • CF Estrela Amadora1 matches

Previous-season context

Recorded season totals from the source competition. Not current form.

Both clubs played the same competition and season, so these values are directly comparable.

FC Alverca

Competition
Primeira Liga
Season
2025/26
Sample
36 matches
Profile grade
A
Data cutoff
28 May 2026
  • Goals scored1.06 goals/match
  • Goals allowed1.47 goals/match
  • Expected goals1.2 xG/match
  • Expected goals allowed1.24 xG/match
  • Shots9.86 shots/match
  • Shots allowed13.3 shots/match
  • Shots on target3.53 shots/match
  • Shots on target allowed4.28 shots/match
  • Possession45.7%
  • Corners4.47 corners/match
  • Corners allowed4.28 corners/match
  • Cards2.6 cards/match
  • Fouls12.2 fouls/match
  • Clean-sheet frequency19%
  • Scoring frequency69%

CF Estrela Amadora

Competition
Primeira Liga
Season
2025/26
Sample
36 matches
Profile grade
A
Data cutoff
28 May 2026
  • Goals scored1.14 goals/match
  • Goals allowed1.56 goals/match
  • Expected goals1.22 xG/match
  • Expected goals allowed1.57 xG/match
  • Shots11 shots/match
  • Shots allowed13.3 shots/match
  • Shots on target3.69 shots/match
  • Shots on target allowed4.39 shots/match
  • Possession47.4%
  • Corners3.56 corners/match
  • Corners allowed5.81 corners/match
  • Cards2.81 cards/match
  • Fouls14.2 fouls/match
  • Clean-sheet frequency28%
  • Scoring frequency56%

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade D · UnavailableUnavailableunavailable
Season samples1 / 1home / away teams
Recent samples1 / 1last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4