PitchMath
Liga Profesional de Fútbol · 2026Jose Amalfitani

Vélez Sarsfield 1–0 River Plate · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vélez Sarsfield won 1–0.

Shots
912
Shots on target
45
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

Velez Sarsfield beat River Plate 1–0. Recorded in this match (Velez Sarsfield – River Plate): shots 9–12, shots on target 4–5, possession 37%–63%, corners 5–7. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

River Plate show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

River Plate's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsVelez Sarsfield · River Plate15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVelez SarsfieldRiver PlateBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match15.2 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against13.6 shots/match9.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

River Plate have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.6%PossessionVelez Sarsfield · River Plate● 64.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVelez SarsfieldRiver PlateBaseline
Possession51.6%64.8%50.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots12 shotsVélez Sarsfield 9 shots, River Plate 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsVélez Sarsfield 4 shots, River Plate 5 shots
  • Possession37%63%Vélez Sarsfield 37%, River Plate 63%
  • Corners5 corners7 cornersVélez Sarsfield 5 corners, River Plate 7 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls14 foulsVélez Sarsfield 9 fouls, River Plate 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsVélez Sarsfield 1 card, River Plate 3 cards
  • Passes321 passes567 passesVélez Sarsfield 321 passes, River Plate 567 passes
  • Pass accuracy61%78%Vélez Sarsfield 61%, River Plate 78%
  • Shots inside box3 shots8 shotsVélez Sarsfield 3 shots, River Plate 8 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks2 blocksVélez Sarsfield 3 blocks, River Plate 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves3 savesVélez Sarsfield 5 saves, River Plate 3 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsideVélez Sarsfield 2 offsides, River Plate 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vélez Sarsfield favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · River Plate in 8

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vélez Sarsfield7 matchesRiver Plate6 matches
1.43 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/60.67 goals/match
0.71 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/61 goal/match
10.4 shots/matchShots7/6▲ 15.2 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target7/6▲ 5 shots/match
51.6%Possession7/6● 64.8%
4 corners/matchCorners7/6● 5 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/63.17 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/612.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 23 Feb 2026, 02:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsVélez SarsfieldRiver Plate
CompetitionLiga Profesional de Fútbol
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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