PitchMath
Liga Profesional de Fútbol · 2026Jose Amalfitani

Vélez Sarsfield 2–1 Boca Juniors · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vélez Sarsfield won 2–1.

Shots
159
Shots on target
43
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Velez Sarsfield beat Boca Juniors 2–1. Recorded in this match (Velez Sarsfield – Boca Juniors): shots 15–9, shots on target 4–3, possession 50%–50%, corners 2–7. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Boca Juniors show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Boca Juniors's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsVelez Sarsfield · Boca Juniors11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVelez SarsfieldBoca JuniorsBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match11.2 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots against15.4 shots/match10.2 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Velez Sarsfield, Boca Juniors.

8.1 days ▲Rest daysVelez Sarsfield · Boca Juniors7.12 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricVelez SarsfieldBoca JuniorsBaseline
Rest days8.1 days7.12 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Boca Juniors have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.6%PossessionVelez Sarsfield · Boca Juniors● 64.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVelez SarsfieldBoca JuniorsBaseline
Possession51.6%64.4%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots9 shotsVélez Sarsfield 15 shots, Boca Juniors 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsVélez Sarsfield 4 shots, Boca Juniors 3 shots
  • Possession50%50%Vélez Sarsfield 50%, Boca Juniors 50%
  • Corners2 corners7 cornersVélez Sarsfield 2 corners, Boca Juniors 7 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsVélez Sarsfield 11 fouls, Boca Juniors 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 cardVélez Sarsfield 0 cards, Boca Juniors 1 card
  • Passes471 passes466 passesVélez Sarsfield 471 passes, Boca Juniors 466 passes
  • Pass accuracy83%81%Vélez Sarsfield 83%, Boca Juniors 81%
  • Shots inside box9 shots3 shotsVélez Sarsfield 9 shots, Boca Juniors 3 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block1 blockVélez Sarsfield 1 block, Boca Juniors 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves2 savesVélez Sarsfield 2 saves, Boca Juniors 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesVélez Sarsfield 1 offside, Boca Juniors 2 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vélez Sarsfield favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Boca Juniors in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vélez Sarsfield5 matchesBoca Juniors5 matches
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
10.8 shots/matchShots5/511.2 shots/match
4 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
51.6%Possession5/5● 64.4%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/5● 7 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 9 Feb 2026, 05:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsVélez SarsfieldBoca Juniors
CompetitionLiga Profesional de Fútbol
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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