PitchMath
Liga Profesional de Fútbol · 2026

Belgrano 2–1 Rosario Central · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Belgrano won 2–1.

Shots
1310
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
1.141.24
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Belgrano beat Rosario Central 2–1. Recorded in this match (Belgrano – Rosario Central): shots 13–10, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 1.14–1.24, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Belgrano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Belgrano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.05 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rosario Central have a visible away split

strong

Rosario Central's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots10 shotsBelgrano 13 shots, Rosario Central 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsBelgrano 5 shots, Rosario Central 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.14 xG1.24 xGBelgrano 1.14 xG, Rosario Central 1.24 xG
  • Possession48%52%Belgrano 48%, Rosario Central 52%
  • Corners6 corners7 cornersBelgrano 6 corners, Rosario Central 7 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsBelgrano 10 fouls, Rosario Central 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Belgrano
0Draws
0Rosario Central
Rosario Central — Belgrano · Liga Profesional de Fútbol1–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Belgrano favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Rosario Central in 6 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Belgrano23 matchesRosario Central21 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored23/21▲ 1.24 goals/match
0.74 goals/match ▲Goals allowed23/211.05 goals/match
1 xG/matchExpected goals6/4▲ 1.4 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots23/21▲ 13.1 shots/match
3.39 shots/matchShots on target23/21▲ 4.71 shots/match
49.3%Possession23/21● 56.7%
3.52 corners/matchCorners23/21● 4.76 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards12/112.27 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls23/2111.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples23 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 24 Jul 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBelgranoRosario Central
CompetitionLiga Profesional de Fútbol
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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