PitchMath
Liga Profesional de Fútbol · 2026

Sarmiento 2–0 Estudiantes de La Plata · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

2–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Sarmiento won 2–0.

Shots
1119
Shots on target
66
Expected goals
1.571.64
Possession
24%76%

Full time

What the match recorded

Sarmiento beat Estudiantes de La Plata 2–0. Recorded in this match (Sarmiento – Estudiantes de La Plata): shots 11–19, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 1.57–1.64, possession 24%–76%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Sarmiento's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sarmiento's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.02 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Estudiantes de La Plata show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Estudiantes de La Plata's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.5 shots/match ▲ShotsSarmiento · Estudiantes de La Plata13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSarmientoEstudiantes de La PlataBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match13.9 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against14.6 shots/match11.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Sarmiento have a visible home split

moderate

Sarmiento's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots19 shotsSarmiento 11 shots, Estudiantes de La Plata 19 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots6 shotsSarmiento 6 shots, Estudiantes de La Plata 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.57 xG1.64 xGSarmiento 1.57 xG, Estudiantes de La Plata 1.64 xG
  • Possession24%76%Sarmiento 24%, Estudiantes de La Plata 76%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersSarmiento 3 corners, Estudiantes de La Plata 5 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls9 foulsSarmiento 17 fouls, Estudiantes de La Plata 9 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Sarmiento
0Draws
1Estudiantes de La Plata
Estudiantes de La Plata — Sarmiento · Liga Profesional de Fútbol1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sarmiento favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Estudiantes de La Plata in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sarmiento21 matchesEstudiantes de La Plata23 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored21/23▲ 1.13 goals/match
1.19 goals/matchGoals allowed21/23▲ 0.65 goals/match
1.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals4/71.33 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots21/23▲ 13.9 shots/match
3.76 shots/matchShots on target21/23▲ 5 shots/match
45.8%Possession21/23● 55.3%
3.95 corners/matchCorners21/23● 4.17 corners/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls21/2311.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples21 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Aug 2026, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSarmientoEstudiantes de La Plata
CompetitionLiga Profesional de Fútbol
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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