Serie A · 2023Thu, 28 Sept 2023, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Frosinone

LWDWD

1–1Full-time recap

Fiorentina

WDLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Frosinone	Fiorentina
Shots	11 shots/match	19 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.71 xG/match	1.47 xG/match▲
Possession	52%●	48%
Corners	8 corners/match	10 corners/match●
Fouls	6 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Frosinone: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.32 xG. Fiorentina: 18 shots, 5 on target, 1.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Frosinone 0.32 xG · Fiorentina 1.39 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	2 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsFrosinone · Fiorentina10.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Frosinone	Fiorentina	Baseline
Shots	10.8 shots/match	10.8 shots/match	11.7 shots/match
Shots against	17.5 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share.

49.3%PossessionFrosinone · Fiorentina●57.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Frosinone	Fiorentina	Baseline
Possession	49.3%	57.3%	50.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Frosinone favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 6 · 5 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲2 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.67 goals/match

1.27 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/60.97 xG/match

1.43 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.31 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/610.8 shots/match

17.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲12.2 shots/match

3.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲4.5 shots/match

6.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲5 shots/match

49.3%Possessionseason · 6/6●57.3%

5.17 corners/match●Cornersseason · 6/64 corners/match

6.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲4.83 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/611.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/617%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/683%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Frosinone37.5

Fiorentina85

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Frosinone41.7

Fiorentina58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Frosinone17.5

Fiorentina30.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Frosinone37.5

Fiorentina2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Frosinone7.5

Fiorentina50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Frosinone55

Fiorentina35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Frosinone32.5

Fiorentina45.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Frosinone6 matchesFiorentina6 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match

1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.97 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShots6/610.8 shots/match

3.33 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.5 shots/match

49.3%Possession6/6●57.3%

5.17 corners/match●Corners6/64 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls6/611.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Frosinone4 matchesFiorentina4 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.75 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.5 goals/match

1.29 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.84 xG/match

11 shots/match▲Shots4/410 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on target4/43.75 shots/match

48%Possession4/4●56.8%

5 corners/match●Corners4/44.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls4/411.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.15 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 28 Sept 2023, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4