Serie A · 2023Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Atalanta

WDLWW

1–2Full-time recap

Inter

LWDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atalanta	Inter
Shots	14 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.04 xG/match	1.35 xG/match▲
Possession	54%●	46%
Corners	6 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Atalanta: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.06 xG. Inter: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 1.06 xG · Inter 1.38 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.9 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Inter16.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Atalanta	Inter	Baseline
Shots	13.9 shots/match	16.6 shots/match	12.1 shots/match
Shots against	10.8 shots/match	9.36 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.82 corners/match●CornersAtalanta · Inter5.27 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Atalanta	Inter	Baseline
Corners	5.82 corners/match	5.27 corners/match	4.72 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atalanta

2Draws

2Inter

27 May 2023Inter — Atalanta · Serie A3–2

13 Nov 2022Atalanta — Inter · Serie A2–3

16 Jan 2022Atalanta — Inter · Serie A0–0

25 Sept 2021Inter — Atalanta · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Inter in 9 · 4 too close

1.73 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲2.45 goals/match

0.91 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲0.55 goals/match

1.29 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/11▲1.98 xG/match

0.75 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/11▲0.7 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲16.6 shots/match

10.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲9.36 shots/match

5.09 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/115 shots/match

3.36 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲2.64 shots/match

52.4%Possessionseason · 11/11●55.4%

5.82 corners/match●Cornersseason · 11/115.27 corners/match

3.73 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲3.18 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1110.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

64%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1164%

91%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta62.5

Inter82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta80.8

Inter92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta80

Inter95.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta67.5

Inter82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta87.5

Inter22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta87.5

Inter77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta85

Inter70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atalanta11 matchesInter11 matches

1.73 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲2.45 goals/match

0.91 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲0.55 goals/match

1.29 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.98 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShots11/11▲16.6 shots/match

5.09 shots/matchShots on target11/115 shots/match

52.4%Possession11/11●55.4%

5.82 corners/match●Corners11/115.27 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.2 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atalanta5 matchesInter5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match

0.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.2 goals/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.76 xG/match

14 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match

5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match

52.2%Possession5/5●58.4%

6.6 corners/match●Corners5/54.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4