PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sun, 17 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Roma

LWWWD
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRomaSassuolo
Shots10 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals0.7 xG/match▲0.49 xG/match
Possession63%●37%
Corners4 corners/match7 corners/match●
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Diego Llorente · Roma · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPedro Obiang · Sassuolo · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGrégoire Defrel · Sassuolo · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Obiang · Sassuolo · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArmand Laurienté · Sassuolo · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 50′ · 0.02 xG · goalDiego Llorente · Roma · 66′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMartin Erlić · Sassuolo · 58′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBryan Cristante · Roma · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBryan Cristante · Roma · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedUroš Račić · Sassuolo · 68′ · 0.06 xG · on targetArmand Laurienté · Sassuolo · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Baldanzi · Roma · 75′ · 0.08 xG · on targetRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 5′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Baldanzi · Roma · 88′ · 0.11 xG · on targetRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 73′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 45′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMattia Viti · Sassuolo · 80′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Roma: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.72 xG. Sassuolo: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Lorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 50′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Roma 0.72 xG · Sassuolo 0.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Roma have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.9 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.9 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.4%●PossessionRoma · Sassuolo44.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRomaSassuoloBaseline
Possession54.4%44.2%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Roma
2Draws
1Sassuolo
Sassuolo — Roma · Serie A1–2
Roma — Sassuolo · Serie A3–4
Sassuolo — Roma · Serie A1–1
Sassuolo — Roma · Serie A2–2
Roma — Sassuolo · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Roma favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Sassuolo in 1 · 3 too close

1.9 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/291.14 goals/match
1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/291.93 goals/match
1.38 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 29/291.09 xG/match
0.98 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 29/291.61 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲12.8 shots/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2914.8 shots/match
4.03 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/294.24 shots/match
3.62 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/294.9 shots/match
54.4%●Possessionseason · 29/2944.2%
4.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/29●5.28 corners/match
4.1 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/295.55 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2910 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/297%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2966%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Roma72.5
Sassuolo22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Roma61.7
Sassuolo59.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Roma65.8
Sassuolo17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Roma2.5
Sassuolo82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Roma72.5
Sassuolo12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Roma17.5
Sassuolo77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Roma46.2
Sassuolo55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Roma29 matchesSassuolo29 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored29/291.14 goals/match
1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/291.93 goals/match
1.38 xG/match▲Expected goals29/291.09 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots29/29▲12.8 shots/match
4.03 shots/matchShots on target29/294.24 shots/match
54.4%●Possession29/2944.2%
4.17 corners/matchCorners29/29●5.28 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.6 fouls/matchFouls29/2910 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Roma15 matchesSassuolo15 matches
2.27 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/152.07 goals/match
1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.05 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots15/1512.1 shots/match
4.13 shots/matchShots on target15/154.13 shots/match
52.7%●Possession15/1544.7%
4.47 corners/matchCorners15/15●5.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.7 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.12 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Mar 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRomaSassuolo
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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