PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026
2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Le Mans and Stade Brestois drew 2–2.

Shots
826
Shots on target
57
Expected goals
0.692.36
Possession
50%50%

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots26 shotsLe Mans 8 shots, Stade Brestois 26 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots7 shotsLe Mans 5 shots, Stade Brestois 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.69 xG2.36 xGLe Mans 0.69 xG, Stade Brestois 2.36 xG
  • Possession50%50%Le Mans 50%, Stade Brestois 50%
  • Corners1 corner10 cornersLe Mans 1 corner, Stade Brestois 10 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls12 foulsLe Mans 14 fouls, Stade Brestois 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardLe Mans 1 card, Stade Brestois 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Raphaël Le Guen · Stade Brestois · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMamady Diambou · Stade Brestois · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYasser Larouci · Le Mans · 13′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois · 34′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAdil Bourabaa · Le Mans · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Buades · Le Mans · 13′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 43′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Rabillard · Le Mans · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYasser Larouci · Le Mans · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAxel Camblan · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Tousart · Stade Brestois · 79′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 2′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois · 44′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 84′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 2′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 25′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMamady Diambou · Stade Brestois · 79′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLouis Mafouta · Le Mans · 35′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRaphaël Le Guen · Stade Brestois · 18′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedLouis Mafouta · Le Mans · 55′ · 0.13 xG · goalRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois · 31′ · 0.14 xG · goalLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 79′ · 0.25 xG · on targetLucas Tousart · Stade Brestois · 62′ · 0.26 xG · on targetDame Gueye · Le Mans · 45′ · 0.32 xG · goalRaphaël Le Guen · Stade Brestois · 15′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 62′ · 0.53 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Mans: 8 shots, 5 on target, 0.70 xG. Stade Brestois: 26 shots, 7 on target, 2.60 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Dame Gueye · Le Mans · 45′Louis Mafouta · Le Mans · 55′Romain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois · 31′Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Mans 0.70 xG · Stade Brestois 2.60 xG.

Full time

What the match recorded

Le Mans and Stade Brestois drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Le Mans – Stade Brestois): shots 8–26, shots on target 5–7, expected goals 0.69–2.36, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Limited historical context

PitchMath holds only part of the history for this match.

Current-season evidence is below the threshold and the previous-season record is incomplete, so only what is actually stored is shown.

1 / 2 matches toward the first current-season grade

Current season so far

Completed matches in the season being played. Kept separate from the historical block below.

  • Le Mans1 matches
  • Stade Brestois1 matches

Previous-season context

Recorded season totals from the source competition. Not current form.

Le Mans

No trustworthy previous-season profile is stored for this club.

Stade Brestois

Competition
Ligue 1
Season
2025/26
Sample
34 matches
Profile grade
A
Data cutoff
29 May 2026
  • Goals scored1.26 goals/match
  • Goals allowed1.62 goals/match
  • Expected goals1.32 xG/match
  • Expected goals allowed1.48 xG/match
  • Shots11.2 shots/match
  • Shots allowed13.9 shots/match
  • Shots on target3.53 shots/match
  • Shots on target allowed4.65 shots/match
  • Possession43.4%
  • Corners3.85 corners/match
  • Corners allowed5.82 corners/match
  • Cards2 cards/match
  • Fouls12.7 fouls/match
  • Clean-sheet frequency26%
  • Scoring frequency68%

How competition percentiles work

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade D · UnavailableUnavailable — unavailable
Season samples1 / 1home / away teams
Recent samples1 / 1last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Aug 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLe MansStade Brestois
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this