Nottingham Forest
Premier League · 2026This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Leeds United won 0–1.
- Shots
- 12–11
- Shots on target
- 2–3
- Expected goals
- 0.65–0.49
- Possession
- 55%–45%
This match
Match statistics
Every shot
Shot map
Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.
- off target
- on target
- goal
- penalty
- size = xG
Nottingham Forest: 12 shots, 2 on target, 0.64 xG. Leeds United: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.49 xG.
How the match built
Expected-goals timeline
Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.
The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 0.64 xG · Leeds United 0.49 xG.
Full time
What the match recorded
Leeds United beat Nottingham Forest 1–0. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Leeds United): shots 12–11, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.65–0.49, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Season-opening preview
Current-season evidence is still building.
This competition's new season has only just started, so PitchMath does not yet hold enough completed matches for a current-season grade. The comparison below is last season's recorded data, shown as historical context.
1 / 2 matches toward the first current-season grade
Current season so far
Completed matches in the season being played. Kept separate from the historical block below.
- Nottingham Forest1 matches
- Leeds United1 matches
Previous-season context
Recorded season totals from the source competition. Not current form.
Both clubs played the same competition and season, so these values are directly comparable.
Nottingham Forest
- Competition
- Premier League
- Season
- 2025/26
- Sample
- 38 matches
- Profile grade
- A
- Data cutoff
- 24 May 2026
- Goals scored1.26 goals/match
- Goals allowed1.34 goals/match
- Expected goals1.2 xG/match
- Expected goals allowed1.48 xG/match
- Shots12.5 shots/match
- Shots allowed13.3 shots/match
- Shots on target4.11 shots/match
- Shots on target allowed4.29 shots/match
- Possession46.8%
- Corners5.21 corners/match
- Corners allowed4.82 corners/match
- Cards1.55 cards/match
- Fouls10.9 fouls/match
- Clean-sheet frequency24%
- Scoring frequency63%
Leeds United
- Competition
- Premier League
- Season
- 2025/26
- Sample
- 38 matches
- Profile grade
- A
- Data cutoff
- 24 May 2026
- Goals scored1.29 goals/match
- Goals allowed1.47 goals/match
- Expected goals1.43 xG/match
- Expected goals allowed1.47 xG/match
- Shots12.6 shots/match
- Shots allowed12.5 shots/match
- Shots on target3.97 shots/match
- Shots on target allowed4.26 shots/match
- Possession45.7%
- Corners4.42 corners/match
- Corners allowed5.08 corners/match
- Cards1.68 cards/match
- Fouls10.5 fouls/match
- Clean-sheet frequency21%
- Scoring frequency68%
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
- At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
- Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
- Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
- The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
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